This site is a record of personal investing activity. It details positions that attempt to capitalise on volatility brought about by imminent binary events. I will try to keep a timely diary of trades though I am not proposing to present a real-time diary.

My background is in surgery and healthcare related management consulting so the focus will be primarily on healthcare stocks. I try to monitor companies with upcoming catalysts such as PDUFA dates and trial data releases. Ideas from other sectors/industries may also crop up from time to time.

The site’s intent is not to advise on investment decisions or to advocate taking certain positions. Readers, to the extent there are any other than myself, are responsible for their own investment decisions together with any gains or losses that ensue.

Any opinions are my own and are based on publicly available information. If you are interested in an idea, please do your own research and verify pertinent information.

12 thoughts on “About

  1. I’ve been trying to compare Biotech trading in different time frames. Your focus seems to be catalyst plays about 3 months ahead of the catalyst. Is this a new direction, or have you always worked with this relatively short time frame? Any thoughts on why this is preferable to a one to three year period?

    My interest right now is to try and identify the optimal entry point along the FDA pathway, if there is such a thing, and the optimal length of time to hold a position. Any comments appreciated, thanks. David Wilson

    • I like the shorter time frame with these stocks as it helps to make risk a bit more transparent. These stocks can move very quickly against you if something untoward happens. By taking positions ahead of defined catalysts and exiting reasonably quickly I have found that I am better able to control my exposure to shocks.

  2. This strategy does seem to allow for a certain measure of predictability, while avoiding many of the risks inherent to biotech. The hope for a ‘grand slam’ is enticing, as I often read about a biotech that has doubled or quadrupled. Not easy, I’m sure, but with a basket of solid long term holds maybe a few hit it big. And maybe not, meanwhile many things can go south. With so many catalyst events, how do you decide which ones to play? We are finding ourselves buried in information overload.

  3. Just “found” you today via your newest article published on Seeking Alpha. Thanks very much for your work/research and making it available to us all. I am a physician who has enjoyed investing in stocks for ~35 years, focused on short term trades of small-cap biotechs. I plan on following your blog closely.
    Any thoughts of trading around ARNA’s AdCom meeting tomorrow, or ARNA more broadly?
    Thanks again!
    J. B. Porter

    • Hi JB,
      Thanks for the comment. Always good to have another physician studying the market.

      I did not trade around the Ad Comm meeting today. The research that I have done suggests that the best time to enter ahead of these meetings is ~15 trading days. I had a post about it on this site in March and an earlier one in Seeking Alpha. That approach would have potentially worked very well in this instance – though it would have required tolerating a slightly larger loss than in the simple strategy outlined in the articles (~(5.9%) vs. (5%)). I did not take this trade as I was busy with other things in April.

      I think ANRA is up significantly tomorrow (though not a doubling, probably). I will not get in ahead of the PDUFA unless there is a decent pullback.


      • BL,
        Thanks for your response.
        I entered ARNA on 3-27-2012, at $3.34, when it broke out of the 18 month long trading range it had been bound within since it’s first Ad Comm meeting September 2010.
        I was immediately “underwater” and stayed there six weeks, at one point down 40% !
        I believed in the stock and held my position, finally being “made whole” this week.
        Sold half my position on the open of the pre-market session this morning (8:00 EDT) at $7.43, for a 122% profit. Added to my position at $5.78 later this morning.
        Wish me luck!

  4. BL,

    Welcome back! Missed you.


    Have been in and out of APPY three times.


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