ARIA panel

ARIA’s drug (in collaboration with MRK) received a negative vote from its Ad Comm panel with 13-1 voting against its approval. It will therefore be receiving a CRL in June. I exited my position last week – after the briefing documents were released. This is not a best practice.

In general I think the best way to trade the Ad Comm meetings is to look for an entry point about 4 weeks out and exit the position when a reasonable gain has been made (or a maximum loss) or when there are three days left to the meeting. The briefing documents can produce rapid moves in the price and I think it is best not to be exposed to them.

ARIA was a bit different from most of the smaller biotechs I look at in that this Ad Comm meeting was not make-or-break for the company. Its future value is really driven by its other developmental drug, Ponatinib. in fact, in the after-hours its stock is barely taking any hit from the adverse vote.

I have written some thoughts on trading Ad Comm meetings over at Seeking Alpha.



2 thoughts on “ARIA panel

  1. I also saw your article in Alpha on AdComm meetings. Do you plan on selling AFFY ahead of March 27 or hold through the event? I am late to the party, thinking about jumping in anyway.
    David wilson

  2. I will sell AFFY ahead of the PDUFA. I might even think about shorting after the approval – but I will see what sort of movement it enjoys in the next week.

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